It is an interesting time in the labor market, and there are 3 major catalysts; each of which could individually create challenges…and all are hitting at once. Here’s what’s happening:
- Reshoring, Manufacturing, and Supply Chain Growth – More U.S.-based production means more jobs to fill.
- Immigration & H-2B Uncertainty – More open roles, but ongoing concerns about getting full visa allotments.
- Early Spring in the Midwest – Landscaping and construction companies are ramping up hiring sooner than usual.
The problem? All of these industries are fighting over the same limited workforce.
What does that mean?
- Expect wages to rise as companies outbid each other.
- Higher attrition as workers jump for better offers – offers for increased wages may seem small, but impactful to workers leaving companies to wonder why employees left for “just a few bucks an hour”
- During hiring wars speed wins – call applicants fast, and start them as soon as (responsibly) possible.
Our advice:
✔️ Respond quickly to applicants—waiting a few days can cost you a hire.
✔️ Treat employees well—someone else is ready to poach them.
✔️ Compensate on recent trends rather than historical averages – it’s cheaper to pay employees more than experiencing high attrition.
✔️ Have a backup plan—dragging out hiring puts execution (and growth) at risk.
It’s going to be a wild year, only time will tell if our hypothesis is right!
